I Have Decided to Share An Opening Line Numbers Trend System

[Kojak]

I have been tracking opening line numbers for several years and use it as a tool for picking my games. It has been very successful for me and I decided to share with everyone for them to use or track. Every year I start tracking games opening lines and often several numbers stick out as season progresses as numbers that always go the same way despite many of times any line movements. So far this year several numbers have stuck out on both sides and totals. I am going to list these numbers along with the games so everyone can follow, play, criticize, watch, etc. For example, last 2 years, the opening total number of 37.5 has appeared 42 times. 38 out of 42 of these games have gone over the total. The other 4 have missed by less than a fg with 2 of them by .5 pt after line movements. Here are the numbers and trends I have seen this year in NFL so far:

Totals:
34 (100% to the over)
Oakland/Cleveland 45 pts
Washington/Jacksonville 66 pts
TB/Carolina 50 pts
Chicago/ Detroit 41 points
This week there are 2 games: Balt/Den and Chicago/Buffalo.There are others as well. Will list in a few.

47.5 (Under)
Philly/GB
NYG/Indy
There are a couple more I am forgetting here but will add when I look them up. This week: Indy/Tenn

Sides:
6.5 (Favorite Covers)
KC/SF 41-0
Pitt/Miami 28-17
Atl/Arizona 32-10
Seattle/Arizona 21-10
Philly/Houston 28-10 ? Not sure on final but covered
Seattle/NYG 42-30
6-0
This week we have Jacksonville vs Jets

4.5 (Dog Covers and has won outright)
Cincinnati/NE 38-13
Arizona/St. Louis 16-14
Minnesota/Washington 19-16
Green Bay/Detroit can't remember final score GB wins outright
Buffalo/Miami 19-10
Buffalo/NY Jets Jets won outright , cant remember score
6-0, 6 straight up dog winners
This week we have Baltimore/Denver

3 pt Road Favorite (Home Dog Covers)
SF/STL
STL/Denver
Chi/GB (Lost but opened at 3 -105) (Juice on opening line different)
Carolina/Minnesota
Atlanta/NO
Carolina/TB
Indy/NYG (Lost on late cover)
Dallas/Jacksonville
Washington/Jacksonville
San Diego/Baltimore
Cinci/KC (Kc was home fav; may not apply but put in)
Pitt/Cinci (same as above)
Pitt/Jacksonville
Washington/Houston (Lost)
9-3, 11-3 if you include other 2
This week we have Rams/Packers, Chargers/Steelers (fall into 2 odd games noted above)

I think you get the gist of it and I will list others as season progresses. Any thoughts?

 

[Burytheb]

Kojak

Great job,

i can help you track. i use don best for opening lines. whom do you use/

 

[Kojak]

7 pt favorite (favorite covers)
Seattle/Arizona
Jacksonville/Indi (push)
Washington/Dallas
Atlanta/TB
3-0-1
This week none.

8 pt favorite (dog covers)
SF/AZ
Denver/KC (even moved to 11)
Indi/Jets
Buffalo/NE
4-0
this week we have Cleveland/Carolina

Also add Minn/Chicago to 3 pt favorite list. Line moved to 4 and Minne covered.

3 Numbers I am following this week for trend are 1 side and 1 total.
Side: 11 pt favorite (Fav covers)
So far we have had:
Philly/GB
SD/Tenn
Balt/Oak
Miami/Tenn (Lost)
Indy/Houston
Dallas/Tenn
Cinci/Cleveland
So far 6-1
this week we have Chicago/Buffalo

Totals:
43 (over)
GB/NO
Stl/Det
2-0 so far
This week we have KC/AZ and Dal/Philly

 

[Kojak]

I also use Don Best.

 

[parlay3]

hey kojak this is very interesting, do you have the winning percentage from the previous years??

 

[Kojak]

parlay,
The 2 biggest ones that stood out in previous years were both total numbers to the over.

37.5 38 out of 42 over
40.5 27 out of 29 and 1 push to the over

All the rest were down in 70 and low 80's.

 

[Kojak]

There are also some key numbers I could list for college football as well but would take me quite a bit longer time to compile it.

 

[ctdi99]

Kojak!
Base On Your Trend, What Your Picks For Nfl This Week?

 

[Drpzne]

Kojack,
Do you bet these games with the opening lines right away?
Thanks for the info, very interesting.
-DZ-

 

[Kojak]

Based on numbers that have shown trends so far, the bets would be as follows: * indicates very strong trend

Indy/Tenn under (Based on 47.5 under trend) *
Vikings/Lions over (Based on 37 over) *
Green Bay (Based on 3 Road Favorite) *
Bears (Based on 11 pt Favorite)**
Bears over (Based on 34 over trend)***
Cleveland (Based on 8 pt dog cover)*
Cleveland/Carolina over (Based on 37 over trend)*
Jacksonville (Based on 6.5 Favorite trend)***
Jacksonville under (Based on 38 under trend)*
KC/AZ over (Based on 43 over trend)*
Cowboys/Eagles over (Based on 43 over trend)*
Ravens (Based on 4.5 dog cover and su winner trend)****
Ravens over (Based on 34 over trend)****
Steelers (3 pt dog cover but falls into subset as SD home team)*

Games of these I have bet are Steelers,Ravens over, Ravens,Jacksonville,Bears over, Buffalo (went against trend),STL (went against trend).

I still use my other criteria but when you see my very large plays, everything lined up.

In regards to when I bet the game, depends on line movement, if it moving away from team on trend, I jump on right away. If it is moving in my favor, I will wait till it levels off and then bet it. Hope this helps.

 

[BADGAS]

very nice..

 

[Kojak]

A couple of interesting points I have noticed about this system. So far this year my NFL and college has been subpar. Many of my losses have been going against the trends. For example, I loved Indy lw when it dropped to 7 and bought .5 pt to make is 6.5 as everything besides trend lined up. Big 5* loser. I am going to go back and find out what my record would have been if I went with trend on those games. Second, so far this year, the best 3 numbers have been 6.5 for fav, 4.5 for dog, and 34 for over. Great thing about 4.5 is dog has not only covered but won su. In regards to 34 for the over, they have almost went over by halftime everytime. Car/TB,Wash/Jack, Oak/Cleve,Chi/DET, etc. Go back and check it out. So on those games though I have not tracked it, first half over bets would also be 100 % as all were within 7 points or less of cover by halftime.

 

[Factor15]

Thanks K man. We love ya!!

 

[Chorzz]

Real Interesting Thread KJ, Great info. HOw long have you been tracking this info. I would be interested in keeping track of this as well. BOL to you this week

 

[Kojak]

I have been tracking for about 5 years now. I don't know why I have not used it as wisely this year but obvious I have started to get it in gear of late and started using it.

 

[ishmikeyaheardz]

so your saying these total trends have been hitting at low 80% to high 70%? and for this year totals of 37.5 have been hitting at around 90 and toatls of 40.5 have been hitting at 93%? do you think these numbers should average out soon or continue to follow these percentages?

 

[ESQAJM]

When someone comes up with a system like this, I always like to look at what could be the reasoning behind the system. In other words, what makes a 34 point number go over most of the time? Why doesn't it work for a 33.5 number? Do you have any thoughts on why these various numbers work or are they statistical aberations?

 

[Kojak]

Percentages are correct on 37.5 and 40.5 but we have had only 1 lined total of these 2 numbers this year being 40.5 and yes it went over. These are based on last 2 NFL seasons. I have no idea if they keep hitting like this, but I bet them every time they show their beautiful face. The numbers above are this year's trends and like I said above, I really like what I see on 6.5 fav, 4.5 dog and m/l as all have won outright, and 34 over and obvious 1st half over as all have nearly covered by halftime!

 

[Kojak]

ESQ,
I have no explanation whatsoever for it. I started tracking this about 5 years ago because I saw 4 games with same opening total and 3 games with same opening line side number and all went same direction. It makes no sense whatsover but for some reason it cashes. For example, like I mentioned 40.5 being almost unbeatable over number, funny thing is that opening number of 40 has been fairly good under number last 2 years at mid 70% and it has showed up 4 times this season and 3 of 4 have gone under. If I had any reason to explain it , I would not hold back. I have not shared this as I kept as my own little secret advantage but felt with all the new found teamwork around here of late, that I would share. Only a couple people I have ever shared it with until now and they couldn't believe it either how affective it actually was.

 

[ishmikeyaheardz]

wow i just did the calculation the numbers are a staggering 29-3 so far if you have followed this trend system